Middle River, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

991
FXUS61 KLWX 090735
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
335 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong area of high pressure builds overhead today before
pushing offshore later tonight. An upper-level low pressure
system will bring additional rain to the area at times between
late Thursday and Saturday. High pressure returns again over
by Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With winds having gone calm in the past couple of hours and
skies remaining clear, am expecting to see temperatures in the
region plummet into the 20s ahead of sunrise. Already starting
to see that out in the Shenandoah Valley, Potomac Highlands, and
rural portions of the VA Piedmont. Forecast remains on track,
and Freeze Warnings remain in effect through this morning as a
result.

As high pressure builds overhead and eventually pushes offshore
today, a brief return to quiet weather is expected. Highs
return to the mid 50s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies
as winds switch back out of the south, but remain very light
throughout the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper-level pattern will become more amplified toward the
end of the week. The initial shortwave and associated low
pressure system will approach on Thursday. Rain chances will
increase Thursday as the warm front associated with this system
lifts into the area. This of course will also come with an
increase in temperatures back to the upper 50s to low 60s for
areas along and south of the front. However, highs north of the
front remain in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Friday is when the bulk of rainfall is expected at this time.
Recent model guidance really seems to be keying in on this
Friday timeframe for heavier rainfall over the region. However,
rain may even continue into Saturday. Rainfall totals are
mentioned in the long term discussion below, as the event
lingers into that timeframe. As always with cutoff lows, even
though model guidance is seemingly coming to a consensus, these
are very tricky forecasts. At any rate, it is becoming more
likely that we see a significant rainfall from this system, and
perhaps in a beneficial way. However, in a worst case scenario,
we could potentially be dealing with some flooding issues Friday
night. So, will be something to watch as we get a bit closer in
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large upper trough will slowly slide across most of the East Coast
through the weekend. Most of the guidance indicates at least a large
portion of the trough tries to cut off. Still, the cutoff low
remains entangled within the larger synoptic wave pattern. Models
still differ on where the cutoff low is positioned this weekend.
This could have a big impact on where the surface low
develops/tracks, and what locations any heavier rainfall.

The 00Z GEFS/ECM have come into better agreement, indicating a broad
1-2" of rain across the area through Saturday. Some deterministic
guidance and a few ensemble members show the possibility much higher
rainfall amounts up to 3-4". The potential for some heavy rainfall
will have to be monitored in the coming days. Given a lot of our
area remains in a Severe Drought, the rainfall is likely to be
beneficial as it falls over a 24-36 hour period. Still, any heavier
precip in a short period over an urban area could lead to minor
flooding.

The upper trough and surface low move offshore at the start of next
week, with mid-level ridging building in. Temperatures in the
50s/60s over the weekend quickly jump to the 70s for Monday and
Tuesday of next week. A weak/decaying cold front approaches from the
west. However, this is not expected to bring much of any precip to
the area (aside from a few mountain showers).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure persists through Wednesday, which should keep
winds light (shifting to S) and conditions VFR. Southerly winds
may gust to around 20 kt Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions due to low
ceilings and rain are possible late Thursday night, but most
likely into Friday.

Widespread rain shower coverage will bring IFR to LIFR
conditions at the terminals off and on Friday. There are
discrepancies since we are 3 and 4 days out from a possible cut-
off low. Coverage and intensity are still uncertain based on the
multiple model solutions, but something to keep in mind. Winds
east becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Friday and Friday night.

Sub-VFR conditions could continue into the first part of the
weekend, though it will ultimately depend on the position of a broad
surface low. Conditions do likely improve with VFR conditions
returning Saturday night into Sunday as the low pressure moves away.
Northwest winds Sunday afternoon could gust around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure is moving overhead this morning and will gradually
move offshore throughout the day today. Sub-SCA conditions
expected at this time.

SCA conditions are possible again Thursday into Thursday night
with southerly flow developing ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Additionally, rain chances return late Thursday with
this approaching system.

Small Craft Advisories is possible on Friday into Friday
evening as an area of low pressure tracks near/through the
region. SCA conditions will rely on where the aforementioned low
tracks, so certainty is low at this time.

Northerly channeling Saturday into Saturday night could result low-
end SCA conditions over the water (thinking gusts around 18-20
knots). As an area of low pressure near the region moves offshore
Saturday night into Sunday, northwest winds develop in its wake.
These winds increase Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, with SCA
conditions becoming more likely during this time. High pressure
builds into the area Sunday night, bringing winds below SCA
levels.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ008.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ003>006-008-
     011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ025>031-
     036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CJL
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CJL/KRR
MARINE...CJL/KRR